Top three reasons why Linux will never be popular
Saving on Computers May 22nd, 2007I know, I know. By writing this post, I am incurring the wrath of a billion and one linux geeks, gurus and hackers. In principal, I like the idea of Linux, and I have read Neal Stephenson’s “In the beginning, there was the command line.”
I agree with all of it. And though I haven’t played with Ubuntu yet, ten years ago I was screwing around with Red Hat and Slakware before the Linux penguin (Tuxedo?) became ubiquitous.
Let me first enumerate all of Linux’s advantages. I don’t want to make it seem like I’m here to bash Linux. Like I said, I have decent geek creds. I am sure I was looking and playing with it well before most people reading this blog (though it was for less than savory reasons, but that’s for another blog post).
- Free - You don’t get much cheaper than free.
- Support - There are literally thousands of intelligent, thoughtfull and well-spoken people out there providing free tech support, software updates and promotion for Linux.
- Software - There are tons of free and open-source applications for Linux, written by the aforementioned smart people. I won’t call them geeks or hackers, because for most people, those words hold negative connotations. I am happy to be called a hacker though. Likewise would most of my friends. And yes, I did see the Star Wars Movies (re-issues and pre-quels) on opening day.
Linux needs to be more than just free.
Unfortunately, you would think these three things are not enough. That the Linux community has created great installers and software packages cannot overcome it’s innate disadvantages. And they are:
Windows is also effectively free.
Sure, if you were to build your own computer, you would have to buy your own copy of Windows. But for the vast vast majority of people out there, they buy their computers pre-packaged at Best Buy or CompUSA. Each computer comes with its own copy of Windows in an OEM label. Microsoft sells these licenses at a very low cost, factored into the cost of your new computer, so that the consumer rarely sees the cost of Windows. To consumers, Windows is free.
Linux needs to be part of more OEM installs, it’s trying to compete on price. Maybe if there were dedicated volunteer support centers that could commit to some sort of service contract with manufacturers, they would gain more traction in the OEM market. It’s not like Linux can get any cheaper.
Linux games are not popular.
I am not saying that there are not any good Linux games, but they are not popular. In the world of increased networking games, the more popular a game is, the more enjoyable it is. What’s the point of playing a network game alone? It’s a Catch-22. I wish I knew how to fix this problem. All of the real money in game development is in the Windows market. Just ask the Macintosh users.
Open Source business applications are still slow
I know that I am going to get in trouble for this. I don’t have any benchmarks to prove it, but personally, when comparing the performance of OpenOffice against Microsoft Office, Microsoft wins each and every time. I don’t want to waste my time waiting for a file to open up, and every second I lose frustrates me. I’m sure there are many people out there who agree. The OpenSource community needs to focus more on performance.
May 23rd, 2007 at 6:01 am
Haha! Dude, you have been living under a rock the past 6 months.
Is that the famous, windows rock?
There are so much you do not get when writing this article, I don’t even know where to start. But to make this very short, linux is prime time in 2 years. Games will be supported…maybe not everyone, but I wont be surprised to see if wine has gotten so far that most games run well, and maybe even better than on vista.
The only thing I agree with you in, is that OO is a bit to heavy, thanks to java. Check out abiword and gnumeric.
May 23rd, 2007 at 6:11 am
let me also say that I think it’s nice you are tinkering on the (pros) and cons about FLOSS. But all this things you mention can and will be improved in the future. Not just patch by patch, but user by user. As long as users keep adobpting linux, some bigger company will see an opportunity, for now we have dell, which can become a key player on the field.
May 23rd, 2007 at 6:14 am
And if you are helping the average joe save money. Do you thens suggest vista or linux?
May 23rd, 2007 at 8:44 am
The idea that Linux is free is supposed to mean it’s free as in free speech, that you have access to the code and can modify at will.
To most users, though, this means absolutely nothing. I’m not a programmer so to me it’s almost worthless. I want to use my computer, not redesign it. To those who want to, great, more power to you. I am in awe, truly, of your ability to modify software code and make your PC run the way you want. I’m incapable of doing that.
May 23rd, 2007 at 10:14 am
Morphir:
Thanks so much for the comments.
Truth be told, I started this post to talk about how Open Source wasn’t necessarily a pancea, and how it wouldn’t solve everyone’s problems. I had read the Neal Stephenson article/novella about the history of OS development, coupled with my own background with UNIX/Linux/FreeBSD as something to talk about.
I swear, it started with an example of being frugal vs. being cheap, and how Linux, though it was free to purchase, wasn’t necesarily cheap. And then the article morphed.
I hear you about the Windows rock, but without decent games, the kids will never latch on to Linux. Games drive how children make initial decisions regarding software that dictate the rest of their lives. I’ve heard of kids buying specialized desktop setups to play Counterstrike/WOW/Flavor of the day. I know professionals who switch to Macintoshes for better image/music editing capability. But besides people working in webhosting/networking/programming, how many people wake up and say, “I need some linux?”
I hadn’t thought about the java aspect of OO though. Java hasn’t been the platform independent silver bullet that was advertised and lauded 8 years ago. I know it was created before then, but Sun didn’t really push it until the height of the dotcom boom.
I forgot about Dell offering linux bundles, though Joe Sixpack buys his computers at a Big Box retailer.
I hate Vista with a passion. I bought a computer 3 months ago, and then spent the next week installing XP and looking for drivers to support my laptop. Ugh.
To save someone people money? Time is money. It really is. I would suggest that the $50 someone might save by going with Ubuntu over XP (since I hate hate HATE Vista) will be lost either in the time it takes to learn the nuances of Ubuntu (and no system is totally flexible to all users) OR in the productivity lost as they have to adopt applications that they are not familliar with.
To save money, on the surface, linux is better. But people will have to spend some time getting up to speed on it or the new applications that come with it, whereas with Windows, they’re already home. They know where the silverware goes, and that the dog doesn’t like strangers.
I should look over this comment more, but I have a feeling it will turn into another post if I type any longer. My friends are right, I am way too wordy.
Thanks again, Morphir.
May 23rd, 2007 at 10:18 am
Kuriharu - Thanks for that insight. I had not thought of it that way. I remember when RedHat IPO’d, and there was a big mess about who could have access to the pre-issue shares. Linux and all open-source projects started the Creative Commons movement, which allow all sorts of great mix-ups and mash-ups to occur. I wouldn’t know half the stuff I know now if it weren’t for the good people at http://www.boingboing.net, who always have something to say about free speech and the Creative Commons.
But yeah, I wasn’t talking about that aspect of the word “free,” but I think it’s worth thinking about too.
Thanks for the thoughtful comment.
May 24th, 2007 at 11:43 am
I think the real reason Linux will never gain true marketshare against windows is convenience and familiarity.
The vast majority of computer users have been trained at work or school on windows machines. No matter the OS (95, 98, ME, XP, Vista) the base functionality is still there. The average computer user is not going to spend $1000 or so at retail to experiment and learn another OS. Especially one with no perceived support structure (i.e. can’t just call Microsoft or take it to an Apple store).
The average user is also not interested in having to customize their system. The average computer user’s idea of customization is changing the background and screensaver. And they’re perfectly happy that way.
If you’re looking for any solid support, just look at the way people browse the internet. Even with every option out there (Firefox, Safari, Opera, Mozilla) over 60% of users still use Internet Explorer. The reasons are all the same. People already know the program and they’re not willing to invest time or money in exploring other means to get around. Even if all it takes is a free download.
May 25th, 2007 at 6:44 am
Few points here - Window’s based bundles from HP, Dell etc… are sooo much cheaper without XP/Vista. Dell will soon offer Linux on desktops and laptops which will help grow Linux beyond the “Linux geeks”. The hardest part of Linux is setting up drivers and installing the OS from a normal users point of view, now all the hard work is done.
As for gaming… WOW has already started a Linux version as have other retailers. This release will bring the market from PC to Linux as most of these WOW player’s are dual booting Linux anyway.
All I’m trying to say is Linux is growing… it wont be easy but I bet most startup’s and small chain stores will start using Linux as their operating OS.
Oooh yea Motorola is picking it up to run their new phones….
As for OO…… web based applications can handle your basic needs…. Google’s doc’s and spreadsheets for example….
May 25th, 2007 at 7:18 am
i think the main thing holding linux back from mainstream adoption is the fact that i can’t get it to work like a windows machine. i’ve been using linux since redhat 7.3, and i use it a lot — and i don’t know how to use it without editing config files and doing some command line work. it just doesn’t “work” like a windows machine unless you first set it up do so so with config edits and cli input…
people coming from windows don’t wanna learn that stuff — luckily i was a kid back then, so my time was worthless and plentiful so i could spend time learning it… but people who have been using windows for years will never adopt an os that requires they learn new ways of doing things. ESPECIALLY since microsoft is making things easier and easier for them with each revision of their os… soon the average windows user will be as clueless about what’s going on in their machine as the average mac user!
June 5th, 2007 at 6:42 am
Linux won’t get market share because it plays by different rules. Linux doesn’t care if it is on three desktops or three billion because it is not a commercial enterprise. There is nothing to gain by acting competitively because Linux is a hobby for those who care enough about their computers to want to work in the guts of their operating system and bend it to their will. Commercializing Linux would only serve to ruin it for those who love it and it would rapidly devolve into a Microsoft Me-Too. Let’s not wish for that.
Linux is getting easier to use. I tried it for the first time last month with a Wubi installation of Kubuntu. I love it so far with some reservations. Sound is really scratchy and interrupts for a minute or so at a time, so it isn’t good for listening to my extensive music collection. I suspect my soundcard isn’t properly supported, and am seeking answers to that one. I also suspect that the Wubi installation cripples the full capacity of Linux in some way and will be seeking a true dual boot system soon. But I have no illusions about Linux being more than a reincarnation of the old Apple // spirit that I loved so much, and the command line has a long-forgotten charm that calls to me. Unix nomenclature is so foreign though. I hope I can learn to ask to go the bathroom soon or I’ll have a problem. Until then I’m having fun!